This article is from “National Geographic News” dated October 28, 2010

The comments at the end, in blue,  are mine.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Can the Moon Cause Earthquakes?

John Roach
National Geographic News

May 23, 2005

Coast dwellers are accustomed to the daily rhythm of the tides, which are primarily lulled in and out by the gentle gravitational tug of the moon. Some scientists wonder whether the moon’s tugging may also influence earthquake activity.

“The same force that raises the ‘tides’ in the ocean also raises tides in the [Earth's]crust,” said Geoff Chester, an astronomer and public affairs officer with the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C.

Chester said the tides in the Earth’s crust are subtle—on the order of a few centimeters, as opposed to the several-meter ocean tides.

“We live on the crust, so we don’t really notice the deviation from what would be sort of the normal form of the geoid,” he said. “So the effect is small but nonetheless there.”

(The geoid is an imaginary outline that coincides with the mean sea level in the ocean and its extension through the continents.)

In theory, this slight deformation of the Earth’s crust could be sufficient to trigger an earthquake—like the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back.

“Most earthquakes occur on preexisting tectonic lines, and the vast majority do occur as a result of geophysical processes, but there may be some correlation [between the moon] and earthquakes,” Chester said.

For example, he said that in general there is a higher incidence of earthquake activity in the Northern Hemisphere when the moon is north of the Equator and an increase in earthquake activity in the Southern Hemisphere when the moon is south of the Equator.

The moon’s orbit is inclined in relation to the Earth, causing the moon’s position in the sky to nod north and south on an 18.6-year cycle.

James O. Berkland is a Glen Ellen, California-based geologist and editor of Syzygy—An Earthquake Newsletter. He believes the gravitational tugs of the moon, sun, and other planets can influence earthquake activity. Berkland said he has accurately predicted tremors based on factors such as syzygy.

“Syzygy” refers to the alignment of three celestial objects. Syzygy of the sun, Earth, and moon occur twice a month, at the full and new moons. At such times, gravitational forces are at a maximum, especially when the bodies are close together, Berkland said.

The Earth and moon are closest together—at perigee—once a month. The Earth and sun are closest together—at perihelion—once a year. Perihelion currently occurs in early January. Maximum gravitation force occurs when a syzygy and perigee occur on the same day as perihelion.

According to Berkland, seismometers left on the moon by Apollo astronauts show that moonquakes occur most frequently at perigee.

“So we know Earth’s gravity triggers moonquakes. I don’t think any scientist disputes that,” Berkland said. “When I learned that, I went to my former [U.S. Geological Survey] colleagues in Menlo Park [California] and pointed out this really exists, so what’s so difficult about turning it around?”

According to Berkland, the U.S. Geological Survey said such a theory is ridiculous—the Earth is 82 times more massive than the moon. Though the Earth can trigger quakes on the moon, they said, the moon is too small to trigger any earthquakes. *****

But the moon is mostly solid and lacks a liquid core like the Earth, Berkland said. The Earth “is an active, living planet, and so it is not at all surprising that minor gravitational stresses can trigger earthquakes,” he said.*****

Using syzygy and other factors—such as the number of cats and dogs listed in the lost and found in newspaper classified advertisements—Berkland said he accurately predicted several earthquakes, including the October 17, 1989 earthquake in San Francisco, California. Berkland said the number of cats and dogs reported missing goes up prior to an earthquake. The numbers went up significantly prior to the 1989 San Francisco quake, he said.

At least two major quakes may suppoort Berkland’s theory. The December 26, 2004, magnitude 9.1 in Sumatra, Indonesia, occurred on the day of a full moon. Likewise, the March 27, 1964, magnitude 9.2 earthquake in Alaska occurred on the day of maximum high tide.

According to Berkland, such correlations are more than coincidences. They demonstrate a true connection between the moon and earthquake activity, he said.

But Bellini, the U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist, said, “There is still no known observation of an effect related to the moon and seismicity.”

In a follow-up email to National Geographic News, Bellini questioned the scientific validity of Berkland’s predictions. He said they appear to be “self-selected statistical analysis of historical seismicity rates and are so vague in time and location that they are certain to be correct.” *****

Is the observed correlation between the moon’s position in its 18.6-year cycle (or any other lunar phase) and earthquake activity a coincidence or something more? That question, Chester said, is best answered by the U.S. Geological Survey.

“There’s no evidence to support that,” said John Bellini, a geophysicist with the survey’s National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado. “There were some studies in the past that tried to link lunar effects to seismicity [the relative frequency and distribution of earthquakes and there was nothing found.”

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t know where this Bellini went to school but ask any high school physics student and he had better tell you that the gravitational force equals the gravitational constant times the product of the masses of the two bodies divided by the distance squared.

THE FORCE IS IDENTICAL ON EACH BODY.

Second, the Earth has a liquid core which, like the water on the surface is pulled into a pile, under the Earth’s crust by gravitational attraction from both the sun and the moon.

This would be sufficient to crack the crust producing earthquakes.

Moonquakes are less likely because, as far as we know, the moon is solid hence no pile up either on the surface or in the core.

I hear it sometimes many times a day, from everyone who thinks about running for Town Council up to and including the President of the United States.

“We need clean and affordable energy.”

Let me tell you something about energy. It comes at a price.

We generate electricity in a number of ways but in all but one we need to crank a generator. The exception is a solar panel, the photovoltaic conversion of sunlight energy into a flow of electrons.

We crank generators with a turbine powered by steam, water, wind or burning fuel—the jet engine.

With the exception of wind and water all the other systems use steam made by heating water by burning hydrocarbons or heat generated by the decomposition—fission—of nuclear material.

Generators turned by jet engines burn either gas or burn refined jet engine fuel.

Those are our only options. The dream of generating heat from fusion, the squeezing together of hydrogen atoms to form helium with the byproduct of heat only occurs on stars. The best minds on the planet have been attempting to achieve this for decades but have failed. The temperatures and pressures required are not attainable on a continuous basis.

Now to some of the reasons why we will not have “clean and affordable energy.”

The best deal that you can get regarding energy is to hang your wash on an old-fashioned clothesline but your neighbors and environmentalists don’t want to see your underwear flapping in the breeze like Tibetan prayer flags.

Neither do they want to see wind turbines against the skyline on their hills.

Neither do they want to see solar panels on your roof or in your yard if there is not enough sun that hits your roof.

Neither do they want to see dams on the rivers.

Neither do they want to see power plants and transmission towers on their favorite beach.

So to keep saying, “We need to find new ways to generate clean and affordable energy”, accept the fact. There are no new ways.

KNOW WHAT WE NEED?

“Peace on earth, goodwill toward men.”

Looks good on a Christmas card but it ain’t gonna happen anymore than we will get affordable and clean energy.

It’s esthetics versus utility.

It’s wishes versus reality.

When you are done chewing your nails, go to Whole Living Today to get your blood pressure back down to normal.

A puppy takes a lot of care. You must feed it, make sure it has water, take it for walks, play with it, teach it to interact socially, take it to the vet and spend a lot of time with it.

Yesterday I opened a can of worms that I have been trying to avoid since I started this BLOG–politics and Global Warming.

They are intertwined.

Now that I have, I must follow through on a series of related articles….or look like an idiot.

In short, yesterday, “I Bought a puppy”.

The planet is warming. There is enough good data to support this at the present time. We do not know if it will continue to warm up or if it will start to cool.

So far this winter some seriously cold weather and snow have been seen around the world.

In the 1970’s the fear was that the planet was cooling.

As I said yesterday it is cyclic and unpredictable.

There are greater amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere today than there had been as shown by measurements in core samples from ice.

Whether the Sun started the warming cycle a couple of centuries ago and people are adding to it now is a possibility.

Warming of the northern regions releases carbon dioxide from the permafrost along with a far more effective greenhouse gas, methane.

Glaciers are melting. That too is verifiable.

Iceland and Greenland are volcanic in nature and some of the glacial melting can be coming from the rock under the ice and not just the atmosphere.

Science is full of symbols and numbers. Symbols frighten some people but they are “shorthand” for abstract concepts: momentum, energy, force etc.

Numbers indicate magnitude or quantity.

I will try to keep these at a minimum

Most people have heard of “Carbon Dating”.

There are three isotopes of carbon. An isotope has the same chemical properties but different internal configuration for an element.

Carbon 12 is the most common form of carbon and about 99 % of all carbon exists in this state.

Carbon 13 makes up most of the rest.

But there is also Carbon 14, a radioactive form that disintegrates to about half of itself in 5600 years. This is termed, “Half Life”.

Carbon is the major constituent of plant life and it is from this that we derive all of our common energy sources, our hydrocarbons: firewood, coal, oil and natural gas.

No matter what hydrocarbon that we burn to extract the energy that the sun originally put into it, the by-product is water and carbon dioxide.

By measuring the residual carbon 14 contained in ice samples we can determined when that carbon was captured and stored.

Ice core samples do indicate that the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere has been increasing during the period of the industrial revolution and  the increasing population on the planet.

It seems obvious to conclude that people are the cause.

Maybe but maybe not.

If the Sun triggered this warming trend agriculture would spread and populations would grow because there is more food to support them. It may be a corollary rather than a cause.

I am in total agreement that we must reduce carbon emissions but not catastrophically destroy our ability to lead reasonably comfortable lives until we really understand what is happening.

I will continue with this subject in a series of articles that deal with power generation, electric vehicles and nuclear energy.

“Stay tuned for the next thrilling episode of…. Will the World Turn?”.

HURRICANES AND SUCH

I started this BLOG in November 2007 and it has been my intention to terminate it after two years. It’s not because I am bored with it or that I do not have sufficient material to continue it.

Life is full of choices and there are many priorities that clamor for attention:

E-mails have to be read and answered, jokes need to be forwarded, the garbage must go out, wood for the fireplace must be brought in, snow must be shoveled and toilet paper rolls must be replaced when empty.

People say, “I wonder where the time went.”

That’s the answer. It was chewed up by trivia.

Anyway, the reason for this post is the goading by a very interesting and well-researched book that my granddaughter gave me recently, “Hot, Flat and Crowded” by Thomas L. Friedman. It is loaded with good information and a “must read” by Liberals and Conservatives alike.

I do take exception, however, that the author implies that all the ills of the modern world are the result of the policies of the United States in many areas.

First, a digression. I wrote and published  a novel in 1994, DESTINATIONS, which has been out of print for years.

I am seriously planning to have it reprinted soon. I have had to make no changes to the original after all these years because I feel it is more current today than when I wrote it.

In the story, I have a character ask the following:

“Who’s telling you what and why?”

This is something that everyone should ask themselves when they are presented with an argument that they are somewhat wary of.

Back to Friedman’s book. On page 147 I read something that made me take notice and I quote now:

“Many climatologists believe that Katrina’s unusual ferocity was fed by the warmer waters in the Gulf on Mexico, which, they believe, are partly attributable to global warming.”

Friedman stated that after World War II the United States increased its industrial output and as a result generated much more CO2, the major cause of Global Warming. This production increase, he claims, accelerated after the fall of The Berlin Wall and the end of the Cold War.

Being the scientific skeptic that I am, I said to myself, “Wait a minute, what about other hurricanes before WWII?”

During the 1930’s the United States was in a deep depression and industrial production along with CO2 emissions would have been way down.

This led me to look at hurricanes of epic proportion.

The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, was a Category 5 hurricane. The Hurricane of 1938 was also a Category 5 hurricane. These occurred before there had been significant  CO2 generation. Hurricane Camille in 1969 was a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 was a Category 5 hurricane.

Katrina, however, came ashore as a Category 3 hurricane.

It was not a “ferocious hurricane”. The damage that it caused was not by high winds but by a poorly maintained levee system and people living below water level.

Significant rain along the Mississippi River basin could have created the same result without its being a hurricane.

What I am getting at is that the Hurricane of 1938 devastated New England without having traveled across warm Gulf water caused by the United States industrial CO2 pollution.

Now, my point is this. There is no question that the climate is changing. It does so on a daily basis. I have been keeping daily weather records for over 40 years because that is my nature; to observe and hopefully predict. As I stated in my first BLOG article, I am a scientist.

 The geological records of the planet shows the extremes of ocean levels that have occurred over time. These levels are a function of global warming and cooling. There is no argument there but the Earth’s temperature ranges are neither predictable as a function of time nor consistent in amplitude.

I live along the Connecticut coast. The railroad line from New York to Boston runs along this coast and a series of bridges had been built across the estuaries in Stonington, Connecticut that flow into Fisher’s Island Sound then into the Atlantic Ocean.

The clearance under these bridges leave barely enough room for small boats to pass under yet this clearance has been approximately the same during the past 100 years.

What does this mean? The oceans have neither risen nor fallen enough to cause a change in the clearance between the water level and the bottom of the bridge.

This is a “yardstick” cast in stone.

If this is true, then the ocean heights have not changed at Stonington, Connecticut, Samoa, Sri Lanka or Sicily.

People can say, “The beach used to be way down there but now the waves are lapping at my foundation. That proves that the ocean levels have risen.”

Wrong, that shows the effects of erosion at work.

In 1952, on the northwest shore of Oahu, Hawaii I have photos that show about 50 yards of beautiful sandy beach. When I returned in 1953, the beach was only about 20 yards wide with about a six foot drop to the water of hard black lava.

At the time, I asked one of the “locals” about it.

He said, “The sand comes and goes. It will come back.”

In 1954, the wide sandy beach was back.

He understood.

Fishermen who leave Chatham, Massachusetts on Cape Cod in the morning often must return in a different channel because the sand bars shift daily.

Let’s not confuse beach erosion with ocean heights. 

Before we become “Chicken Little” and scream that the sky is falling down, let’s get some solid data that does not favor some scientist’s job, does not support a political party’s agenda and does not allow someone to make a fortune at taxpayer’s expense.

Keep an open mind and a clear head and ask:

“Who’s measuring temperature and where?”

“Who’s measuring ocean heights and how?”

And finally, “Who’s telling you what and why?”

   I receive many e-mails asking why I don’t post articles to this log more often.

The reason is that like most people I find that the trivia that one encounters in everyday living consumes time that could be better spent in creative pursuits

   I write when I encounter either ignorance or stupidity so overwhelming that I have no choice.

   Ignorance can be excused but stupidity is something else entirely.

   People who have not been exposed to fact, for whatever reason, can be excused but when facts are available and well-circulated then those who, again for whatever reason, chose not to accept those facts are truly stupid.

   Stupidity has no place in civilized countries. The people therein have had access to schools, libraries and recently to TV and the Internet.

    There are countless documentaries on TV with well-developed time-lines of the evolution of the surface, forests and landscape of our planet. The rise and fall of ocean levels and the formation and melting of glaciers has been a continuous process.

   Core samples taken from ponds indicate, from very durable pollen samples, the plants that grew in the areas and the temperatures and moisture necessary for those plants to exist.

  The planet Earth has warmed and cooled for eons before there were people, power plants and automobiles.

  Even a fifth grade level geology book would enlighten people to this fact so why are so many people resistant to truth?

   What is it going to take to convince those people who make decisions that can wreck the economies of the entire planet to change conditions that are unchangeable?

   Is it politics alone that so blinds people or is it a more sinister hidden agenda that is determined to revert us back to living in caves and eating roots and berries.

  There are no more new caves and many many more people today so expect violent competition for survival.

   We also know with certainty that land which was deep under the oceans is now the tops of some of the highest mountains.

   The planet and life on the planet are in constant flux. Species that had existed in the past are no longer here and their absence is not because of man but because they either could not adapt in their present form or they adapted by changing their physiology to conform to the new conditions.

   A couple of days ago it was reported that more than usual dead baby penguins were washing up on the shores of Brazil. The article stated that biologist Erli Costa of Rio de Janeiro’s Federal University feels that this is the result of changing weather patterns around Antarctica caused by global warming which is causing rougher seas and stronger currents than the baby penguins are able to cope with.

    A food scarcity caused by over-fishing may be forcing the young penguins to swim further from shore and they are unable to out-swim the currents.

   What will be the consequences of this situation?

The stronger young penguins will survive and contribute to the gene pool of the remaining penguins. Antarctic penguins will evolve into a stronger breed.

   There is historical evidence of this rapid evolution as is seen in the Hawaiian people. The indigenous Hawaiian was a very powerful and large person of great endurance and very acute eyesight.

   Those were the characteristics necessary for survival by paddling a canoe across great distances of open ocean. To get to Hawaii these people had to paddle against the Pacific North Equatorial Current, had to travel long distances without food and had to be able to see the tiny specks of clouds in the distance that formed over islands.

   The open ocean traveler without those characteristics perished just as the weaker Antarctic penguin of today.

   That is the way of life. If the Earth warms, those people who can survive the climate change will survive and reproduce. When the Earth cools again, the process will reverse itself. This has always been the pattern and will continue to be so in the future.

   Humanity will not simply disappear.

   There is one cold hard fact that alters the natural selection of those who contribute to the gene pool. Today, through emotion, humanity is interfering with the process.

   We are promoting “survival of the weakest” by spending millions of dollars keeping babies alive who are too weak to survive on their own.

   That may sound like a cruel and insensitive statement but it is nevertheless true.

   These infants, who are too unsuited for life on the planet, will be contributing to the gene pool and eventually we may be the cause of our own extinction rather than climate change.

   I know that this is a cold statement but it is true.

   Remember, that is the reason why I write these articles.

Truth– rather than emotion, politics or prejudice–will ensure our economic, cultural and physical survival.

“Do I need it?”

“Will I use it?”

“Can I afford it?”

That is how I have managed my life’s finances.

There are obviously times during one’s life when we buy things that we don’t really need but those are what makes life fun. These are the frivolous items that we buy or the trips that we take simply for pleasure.

However, before I spend the money I always ask myself, “Can I afford it?”

I answer that question honestly every time and often forego the pleasure out of a sense of fiscal responsibility.

In my previous post, “Black Plastic”, I questioned the necessity of the plastic sheet at construction sites.

To date, one person has agreed with me and one has misunderstood my article.

I did not blame Saudi Arabia for our misguided use of polyethylene.

If readers go back to the beginning of my articles they will find that my entire purpose in writing these articles is to question actions based on emotion rather than reason.

I assume the intended purpose of the plastic is to protect the environment. However, it does not and its use amounts to “Fiscal Irresponsibility”.

In short, we don’t need it and we can’t afford it.

The US has been in a continuously increasing trade deficit and purchasing polyethylene from a foreign country worsens the situation.

Polyethylene is a petroleum-based product. It is my opinion that crude oil, which we are told is a limited resource, is being diverted to the production of a product that we don’t need and can’t afford.

During my recent travels I drove along a highway in western Florida where some road construction was underway in the median strip.

It was a four-lane Interstate highway with the wide median strip the level of which was below the center of the highway lanes.

During the last decade it seems that no one is permitted  to dig in their yard or anywhere else without driving some stakes into the ground and attaching sheets of black plastic. I am not certain who established this requirement but it appears that the purpose is to prevent rocks and water from going somewhere where they are not supposed to go.

It doesn’t matter that this thin plastic barrier permits water to flow under it or stones to roll through it and knock it down. What puzzles me is that the plastic must be installed higher than the level at which the work is being done.

I have yet to see stones or water to run uphill but nevertheless, that is where the plastic must be.

As though that wasn’t sufficient, hay bales seem now to be required along with the plastic sheet.

Getting back to my Florida trip, I saw miles and miles of black plastic along that particular stretch of highway. In some places it went through the woods and completely around the off ramps as far as 200 feet away from the actual digging site.

What I found particularly bizarre is that this construction area had a double row of black plastic separated by about 18 inches.

This made the cost of the pointless black plastic installation double what a single wall would have been.

At that point I was determined to find out what company has convinced highway departments that this nonsense was necessary to protect the environment.

What I found: Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) is one of the world’s 10 largest petrochemical manufacturers. The company is among the world’s market leaders in the production of polyethylene.

So, more US dollars flow out of the country not just for oil but for useless plastic that further fills our landfills and will probably still be intact long after the spent radioactive waste from our nuclear power plants has cooled down.

To quote Harry Golden’s book title: “Only In America”.

Which, by the way, is a good read along with his “For Two Cents Plain”

For a number of years I have been going to the same resort in Jamaica. Quite a few years ago I met the man who picks up trash and plastic cups from the beach, arranges the beach lounges and chairs for the next day and then rakes the beach.

He’s a Rastafarian as is his father and was his grandfather. They eat vegetables and some fish but not meat. They don’t believe in violence or war. They don’t drink alcohol or smoke cigarettes but they do smoke marijuana. (A topic that I have planned to discuss in a future post).

He’s an interesting old guy who leaves the resort at the end of the day and walks to his home in the mountains.

He has been doing this for a long time. He told me that he had to cut off his ‘dreads’ that had reached to his knees in order to get this job.

I returned home yesterday bringing with me an interesting topic.

While sitting on the beach near the end of the day Pablito noticed that I started to pick up a plastic cup not too far from my lounge.

“No mon, leave it. I pick it up.”
I told him that it wasn’t mine and that I wouldn’t leave a cup on the beach.

“I know,” he said. ” Inside you Rasta too. But if everyone was like you who didn’t leave trash on the beach, I would have no job and my family would go hungry.”

Slobs do, after all, have a place in ‘the order of the universe”.

I have just read an article that appeared January 22nd, on NEWSMAX HEALTH.

I feel that it is important to spread this information because many home remedies from Latin American countries and India use incredibly high levels of lead in their preparation.
The CDC reported 12 cases of lead poisoning in 2004 from using ayurvedic remedies in Texas, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York and California.

High levels of lead have been found in ayurvedic medicines, which are used in India and in South Asian immigrant communities in New York, Chicago and Houston. These medicines include ghasard, a brown powder given to relieve constipation in babies, and mahayogaraj gugullu, for high blood pressure.

Lead poisoning can cause lethargy, confusion, learning problems and convulsions. Too much lead can cause irreversible brain damage and death.

The article stated:
“Traditional medicines may account for up to 30 percent of all childhood lead poisoning cases in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates 240,000 U.S. children were diagnosed with high blood lead levels in 2004 to 2006.”

“Mexican remedies such as greta, azarcon and rueda – powders that are given to treat constipation in children and contain as much as 90 percent lead. In New York City and Rhode Island, high lead levels in the blood have been tied to litargirio, a powder containing up to 79 percent lead. It is used by Dominican immigrants for such ills as foot fungus and body odor.”

“In Harris County, which includes Houston, traditional medicines are blamed for nearly one-fifth of all cases in which children were found to have high levels of lead. In Arizona, home remedies account for one-fourth of childhood lead poisoning cases.”

How many high lead level cases are not reported if the child doesn’t become ill enough for the parents to become aware that it is their home medication that is causing problems?
If there are minute traces of lead in paint on toys, I wondered when I wrote the previous article, how many toys that have minute traces of lead in their paint must a child eat to cause the levels of lead absorbed and detected?
My point is that before we make drastic and costly decisions we should not make assumptions. The scientific approach of ‘cause and effect’ seems to have been forgotten recently. Opinion and emotion seems to prevail over solid scientific fact.